Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.007962 0.008978 0.010076 0.011351 0.012792 0.014371 0.016233
2026-01-04 0.006415 0.007827 0.009478 0.011555 0.014100 0.017121 0.020988
2026-01-11 0.005582 0.007191 0.009180 0.011823 0.015250 0.019555 0.025390
2026-01-18 0.004857 0.006541 0.008716 0.011739 0.015844 0.021244 0.028915
2026-01-25 0.004330 0.006057 0.008376 0.011728 0.016466 0.022953 0.032555
2026-02-01 0.003849 0.005570 0.007961 0.011540 0.016783 0.024221 0.035646
2026-02-08 0.003527 0.005266 0.007758 0.011608 0.017437 0.025985 0.039567
2026-02-15 0.003211 0.004932 0.007472 0.011513 0.017819 0.027351 0.042981
2026-02-22 0.003024 0.004771 0.007422 0.011756 0.018717 0.029548 0.047845
2026-03-01 0.002718 0.004396 0.007006 0.011384 0.018605 0.030142 0.050178
2026-03-08 0.002483 0.004113 0.006707 0.011166 0.018708 0.031069 0.053109
2026-03-15 0.002260 0.003826 0.006378 0.010866 0.018640 0.031692 0.055554
2026-03-22 0.002182 0.003780 0.006443 0.011242 0.019763 0.034431 0.061955
2026-03-29 0.002078 0.003681 0.006414 0.011451 0.020612 0.036768 0.067856
2026-04-05 0.001994 0.003607 0.006418 0.011717 0.021578 0.039380 0.074483
2026-04-12 0.001863 0.003439 0.006240 0.011633 0.021893 0.040828 0.079041
2026-04-19 0.001754 0.003302 0.006109 0.011623 0.022338 0.042543 0.084249
2026-04-26 0.001631 0.003128 0.005895 0.011436 0.022426 0.043582 0.088203
2026-05-03 0.001552 0.003031 0.005816 0.011504 0.023012 0.045622 0.094342
2026-05-10 0.001459 0.002901 0.005663 0.011409 0.023264 0.047015 0.099259
2026-05-17 0.001412 0.002857 0.005676 0.011650 0.024214 0.049885 0.107532
2026-05-24 0.001302 0.002677 0.005404 0.011281 0.023867 0.050055 0.110000
2026-05-31 0.001216 0.002541 0.005212 0.011066 0.023823 0.050850 0.113896